No’ to Chile’s new constitution leads ‘Yes’ by 10 points in latest poll

55.7 percent of likely voters in the upcoming plebiscite on the new Chilean constitution would vote against the text agreed by the Constitutional Convention, while 44.3 percent would vote in favor, according to the Pulso Ciudadano study published by Chilean radio station Radio Bío Bío.

These figures correspond to the response of those who say they will probably vote in the consultation, while if one works with the hypothesis of 100 percent participation the difference is even greater: 62.3 for ‘No’ and 37.7 percent for ‘Yes’.

The study, published 56 days before the plebiscite, also reveals that 46.3 percent would vote ‘No’ and 28 percent would vote ‘Yes’ if the referendum were held next Sunday. Some 15.6 percent are undecided and 2.9 percent would vote null or blank. Some 7.2 percent will not vote.

Estimates point to a turnout of between 50.9 and 58.3 percent of the census in the September 4 vote. The point estimate is 54.6 percent, or 8,231,836 voters.

As for the expectations of who they think will win the plebiscite, 47.1 percent think that the rejection option will win, 5.5 points more with respect to the last poll, while 28.9 percent think that the approval option will win, 3.2 points less. Twenty-four percent do not know who will win.

Furthermore, 59.2 percent of the population is very interested in the constituent process; 23.3 percent is not at all or little interested and 17.5 percent is moderately interested.

71.4 percent of the population declares that they are very decided about their vote and 18.9 percent are not at all or not very decided about their vote. 9.7 percent are moderately decided.

As for the approval of the president, Gabriel Boric, it reaches 26.9 percent, 2.6 points more than 15 days ago (24.3 percent) and a disapproval of 60.3 percent (3.9 points less, 56.4 percent). A 12.8 percent do not know how to evaluate his administration.

The main problems of the country, in the opinion of citizens, are: crime (49.7 percent), inflation (40.9 percent), drug trafficking (20.5 percent) and immigration (20.4 percent).