Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict an imminent recession in the Eurozone

Investment banks Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have predicted an imminent recession in the Eurozone. “The risks to our forecast point to a deeper recession in the event of an even more severe disruption in gas flows, a new period of sovereign tensions, or a recession in the U.S.“, said Goldman Sachs economists.

Goldman Sachs predictions

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, released reports on Wednesday, independently predicting an imminent recession in the Eurozone.

Goldman Sachs analysts expect a eurozone recession in the second half of this year that will last through the end of the year. They also expect a 0.1% contraction in the third and 0.2% in the fourth quarter, and expect growth to return in 2023.

“Looking across countries, we have Germany and Italy in clear recession in the second half of the year, while Spain and France continue to grow,” detailed Goldman Sachs economists :

The risks to our forecast point to a deeper recession in the event of an even more severe disruption to gas flows, a new period of sovereign stress, or a U.S. recession.

Economists have highlighted some reasons for the downturn, including a looming gas crisis and Italy’s political problems.

JPMorgan predictions

In a note released Wednesday, JPMorgan warns that the eurozone will experience a mild recession early next year. The bank’s economists have lowered their economic forecast. They now expect eurozone GDP growth of 0.5 percent this quarter, followed by a 0.5 percent contraction in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year.

JPMorgan analysts added:

We expect the ECB to hike another 50 basis points by the end of the year.

The two investment banks’ recession forecasts follow a warning Tuesday from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that Europe and the U.S. would see virtually no growth next year if Russia completely cuts off gas supplies to Europe and further reduces its oil exports.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy contracted from April to June for a second consecutive quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday that the nation’s GDP fell at an annualized rate of 0.9 percent for the period. However, President Joe Biden has repeatedly dismissed fears of a recession. In addition, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday that the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession.