The price of bitcoin has fallen 72% since the last all-time high, and the question is again whether the bottom has been reached in the current cycle. For trader and analyst @rektcapital, the floor price of the first crypto-currency will be recorded in this last quarter of the year.
The analyst points to the weak price action in recent days, reflected by the fact that USD 20,000 has ceased to be a price support to become part of the new resistance range. The specialist says that the possible range of bitcoin’s floor would be between $16,985 and $23,467.
Among the reasons for this assumption, @rektcapital pointed out this Monday, September 19 on his Twitter account that bitcoin recorded a low price in 2015, 547 days before the next halving. In 2018, bitcoin bottomed out 517 days before the third halving.
In 2015, #BTC bottomed 547 days before the Halving
In 2018, $BTC bottomed 517 days before the Halving (discount March 2020 crash)
If Bitcoin is going to bottom 517-547 days before the upcoming April 2024 Halving…
Then the bottom will occur in Q4 this year#Crypto #Bitcoin
– Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) September 19, 2022
If a new bitcoin floor is to be recorded between 517 and 547 days before bitcoin’s next halving in April 2024, then such a floor must occur in the last quarter of this year, says @rektcapital.
Bitcoin’s death cross would involve a further decline.
While warning that historical data is not reliable in predicting future price action, @rektcapital refers in its latest market newsletter to the so-called “crossroads of death“, a bearish indicator of an asset’s price, which occurs when the 50-day exponential moving average (50D EMA, blue in the chart), crosses downward into the 200-day moving average (200D EMA, black in the chart).
As can be seen on the chart, this bearish crossover occurred in early January. On January 9 of this year, the day of the crossover, the price of bitcoin was $41,800, according to figures from TradingView.
The analyst says that price withdrawals in previous bearish crossovers have ranged from -42% to -73%. While it is impossible to predict how far the price will fall, the worst case scenario would involve a drop to the 11,000 level, says @rektcapital.
Today, the Fed will announce another interest rate hike, which the market expects to be 0.75%, although a 1% or 100 basis point hike is also being considered. This would be the largest rate hike since the early 1980s. If this happens, it could send the price of bitcoin into a new bearish phase.