Lula still ahead in polls, but Bolsonaro for the first time overtakes him in some sectors

The candidate of the Workers’ Party (PT) and former president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is eight points ahead of Jair Bolsonaro in the first poll ahead of the second round on October 30, although the ultra-right-winger reduces the disapproval of his government and surpasses him for the first time among certain groups of voters.

It is among white men that Bolsonaro has taken a slight lead over Lula. Thus, although the margin of error could mean a technical tie, for now, according to the Ipec poll, 47 percent of this electorate would vote for the Brazilian president against 45 who would give their support to the PT aspirant.

It is the first time that he is ahead of Lula among this segment of the population. As last Sunday’s polls approached, Bolsonaro has been recovering lost ground, although he has always been behind his rival, who got six million more votes than him in the first round.

Nevertheless, Lula continues to lead also in this latest poll, thanks to the better image he projects in almost all groups of voters. Thus he achieves 51 percent of the voting intention against Bolsonaro’s 43 percent.

On the other hand, the Brazilian electorate is clear about the direction of its vote, as expressed by 92 percent of those surveyed, since only 8 percent assure that they could still change it. Forty percent would not vote for Lula at all, while 50 percent have the same opinion regarding Bolsonaro.

Where it does not seem that things will change for the moment is in the predilection that Lula obtains among racialized voters and those of lower income. The PT candidate has 55 percent of voting intention among voters of the first group, as well as among 64 percent of the second group.

For their part, only 39 percent of blacks and 29 percent of those with lower incomes, around one minimum wage (192 euros), would vote for Bolsonaro’s reelection in three weeks.

It is in the group of voters with high incomes, more than five minimum wages (about 960 upwards) where the ultra-right-winger would obtain more support, a circumstance that has been repeating itself in previous polls. Sixty-five percent would vote for him, compared to 30 percent for Lula. In the middle income bracket, Bolsonaro also narrowly prevails, with 49 percent against 44 percent.

Lula also wins among the female and male electorate, with 53 percent and 49 percent, respectively, against 40 percent of women and 45 percent of men who would give their support to Bolsonaro. Throughout the campaign, the president’s team has tried unsuccessfully to turn around the bad image he has among women voters, even relying on the image of the first lady, Michele Bolsonaro.

Among Catholics, Lula is ahead with 59 percent against 36 percent of his rival, who does have a better reception among evangelist voters, 61 percent prefer him to the PT, with 31 percent.

In territorial distribution, Lula has a wide advantage in the Northeast, while Bolsonaro is preferred in the South, North and Midwest. In the southeast region, where the three largest electoral centers — Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo — there is a situation of technical tie.