The current bitcoin bear run has just entered the longest bottom formation since the 2013-2015 bitcoin bear market. In addition, analysts note that most technical bottom indicators used to predict bitcoin prices have failed to predict whether or not the bottom is reached.
Rainbow and S2F: the list of technical indicators that failed to predict bitcoin’s bottom.
A month ago, crypto supporters celebrated the end of one of the longest and hardest bitcoin bear markets since the 2013-2015 bitcoin bear market. At the time, the 2013-2015 bitcoin bear market was the longest downturn, but today, the current crypto economic contraction period is expected to surpass the 2013-2015 crypto downturn.
In addition to the longest background phase144 days ago how a number of technical indicators failed this year to predict the future dollar value of bitcoin. One of the biggest failures of the price models mentioned this year was the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which was denounced by Ethereum advocate Anthony Sassano and ETH co-founder Vitalik Buterin last June.
“We need more pain before we make a bottom”
My man, we’ve seen:
– a top 3 exchange collapse
– 2 top VCs in the space get liq’d
– 2 top 10 coins w/ a $60B+ mcap go to zero
– lending market wiped out
– Bitcoin down ~80% from ATH
– alts down 90-99% from ATH
What more do you want?
– K A L E O (@CryptoKaleo) December 22, 2022
While all the so-called “best” technical indicators fail miserably, many crypto-currency supporters continue to post on forums and threads on Twitter on the confusing background of bitcoin. For example, on December 27, the Twitter account Crypto Noob tweeted: ” Bitcoin is currently trading in the oversold zone. Which is historically where the bottom forms. Do you think BTC has hit bottom?“
Questions and posts like this litter crypto-currency-focused forums and social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter. On Reddit, the r/cryptocurrency subreddit forum features a post that highlights how the background technical indicators have failed, and the post’s author details that analysts have “no idea” and that this time “IS different“.
The author of the post “u/Beyonderr“explains how eight technical indicators have been unreliable for bitcoin traders this year. For example, the weekly RSI (relative strength index) was supposed to signal oversold levels and bitcoin’s bottom, but Beyonderr says “that was not true this year.”
Other unreliable technical indicators mentioned by Beyonderr include the monthly MACD (moving average convergence/divergence), Rainbow price chart, 200-week moving average, 100-week X moving average, 20-week moving average, Pi cycle indicator, Hash ribbons indicator, and average percentage drawdown from the top of a cycle.
In addition, Beyonderr mocked the S2F price model as an indicator of ” bonus Meme“. ” The worst indicator of all, the horrible Plan B Stock-to-flow model. Add it to the pile of failures“, Beyonderr wrote. The post on r/cryptocurrency also mentioned that there might be four indicators that suggest that the bottom “might be in there“, at least according to Beyonderr.
Indicators cited by Beyonderr include such signals as the “time on market“, the “Puell Multiple“, the “Mayer Multiple” and the “MVRV Z-score“. Meanwhile, many on social media platforms like Twitter wholeheartedly believe that the bottom is awfully close, but so far, most technical signals have been unreliable deviations.