3 big predictions about crypto-currencies for October 2022

With another month where Bitcoin, Ether and most altcoins have plunged into the red, all eyes are hoping for greener price charts for the major cryptos in the last quarter.

Wake me up at the end of September” was the predominant sentiment of the majority of crypto-currency HODLers over the past month. While macroeconomic conditions continued to dictate the short-term trajectory of crypto-currencies, bearish sentiment took over the broader market.

Throughout September, bearish views gained heat, as seen in the red bars below, which represent the number of sell, sell, sell or bearish mentions.

Declining Demand

The total fees spent to use a blockchain presents the willingness to spend and the demand to use it. In the most recent quarter, Bitcoin’s fees generated just under $30 million from the network, down from $42.9 million in Q2 2022.

On the other hand, Ethereum’s fees dropped even more, from $1.29 billion in Q2 to $264 million in Q3, a 79% drop quarter-over-quarter.

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Despite the drop in demand, prices held up relatively well, with bitcoin consolidating and ethereum appreciating 30% from the previous quarter.

Additionally, net flows indicated that while BTC experienced neutral sentiment, ETH experienced a more bullish stance relative to BTC. Bitcoin saw modest inflows into centralized exchanges of less than $50 million, which was higher than the $192 million net outflows in Q2.

For Ether, more than $1 billion ETH left the exchanges for the fourth consecutive quarter, while outflows in the third quarter were $57 million less than in the second quarter.

3 things to remember in October

The price of bitcoin has struggled to maintain the $20,000 psychological support barrier throughout September. Without a good rise from whales and retailers, a significant price increase seems like a distant dream.

Santiment whale metrics have shown that there is no whale accumulation or major utility in BTC to get excited about at this time.

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Key level whales holding between 100 and 10,000 BTC continue to dump their assets. Over the past year, these key addresses have given up 3.5% of supply to addresses that have much less impact on future price movement. In September alone, 0.4% of BTC supply was abandoned. In October, a key trend to watch is the accumulation of potential whales.

The amount of unique BTC moving from address to address remains scarce, leading the NVT signal to show a bearish signal for a second consecutive month. A rise in this same signal could prove to be a bullish indicator.

A look at BTC funding rates presented another disturbing trend where traders are progressively more and more when the price is not falling. Once long positions are high enough, another collapse takes place, traders try to temporarily short, then give up and start shorting again.

Thus, going forward, it may be crucial to monitor the above key indicators. A reversal of these metrics on the channel could represent a bullish turn for BTC, ETH and the market in general.

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