World oil demand, driven mainly by China, is expected to increase in 2023 to a record level and exceed 100 million barrels per day. Despite all the energy transition efforts implemented to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels, which are responsible for global warming, this consumption peak will not be reached before 2025. This growth is supported in particular by the recovery of activities in China and international air traffic.
IEA (International Energy Agency) forecasts
According to the report published on February 15, 2021 by theInternational Energy AgencyTotal oil demand is expected to reach 101.9 million barrels per dayThis is an increase of 2 million barrels per day compared to 2022 and 1.4 million barrels per day compared to 2019, before the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. China will play a leading role in this growth via the reopening of borders, thus promoting the recovery of air traffic.
The World Economic Forum
The World Economic Forum The World Economic Forum (WEF) ended this Friday, January 21, in Davos, without any real headliners, but with many important discussions on global uncertainties and the threat of recession. About 50 heads of state and government were present. During the meeting, Ukraine’s First Lady Olena Zelenska brandished the threat of a collapsing world due to the Russian offensive against her country. President Volodymyr Zelensky called for speed in making decisions on aid to Ukraine. In addition, Alain Berset opened the 2023 edition with a speech condemning the Russian offensive, saying that democracies were at a turning point.
Ecological Awareness and Commitments
Ecological issues were also widely discussed with several strong statements in favor of the environment. Swedish activist Greta Thunberg accused the Davos Forum of fueling the destruction of the planet, particularly by investing in fossil fuels. The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen took the floor to remind the importance of fighting global warming and to announce the objective of carbon neutrality of the European Union by 2050.
Argentine Defections for Climate Alarmism: The Example of Zion Lights
Faced with the actions of environmentalist organizations such as Extinction Rebellion, which advocates an immediate halt to the use of fossil fuels, and the positions taken on global warming, there are controversies and defections that are multiplying. Thus, following Michael Schellenberger and Steven Koonin, the former spokesperson for Extinction Rebellion, Zion Lights, recently denounced the hold she suffered internally, and the exaggerated and catastrophic claims of the organization to which she belonged. She said it was absurd to listen to the words of those who fuel the destruction of the planet.
Measures Taken by the States
- In order to face global warming, many countries have set up ambitious plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to make the transition to energy
- Several countries are behind the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015 with the common goal of limiting global warming to less than 2°C
- The European Union has set itself the goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050
- Many countries are implementing fuel taxes and encouraging the adoption of cleaner, more sustainable alternatives
- Training programs and financial assistance are being put in place to facilitate the switch to renewable energy sources
Despite all these measures, it is unlikely that peak fossil fuel consumption will be reached before 2025. While China will account for a large share of oil demand in 2023, global demand is expected to remain at a very high level, even reaching a record 101.9 million barrels per day.