Italians turn the page tomorrow to the Draghi era with the far right as favorite

Italy goes to the polls this Sunday to renew the Parliament, in early elections that will put an end to the period of technocrat Mario Draghi as Prime Minister and that, if the polls forecasts are fulfilled, will open a new era dominated by conservative parties, with the far-right Giorgia Meloni at the forefront.

Meloni heads Brothers of Italy, a formation that emerged as a split from Silvio Berlusconi’s center-right and that in barely ten years has gone from being a nationalist, ultra-conservative and anti-European anecdote to positioning itself as a favorite, with a voting intention of more than 20 percent.

The leader who in her youth described the dictator Benito Mussolini as “a good politician” is now the greatest exponent of the social discontent that has relegated to the background the blocs that had traditionally dominated Italian politics, thanks to which the 5 Star Movement (M5S) and the League also achieved important results in the previous elections.

In the case of Meloni, she has gained new followers after partially toning down some lines of her discourse -she continues to be critical of the EU but no longer raises the exit from the euro–, but she remains faithful to her messages against immigration or in favor of the traditional family.

On fiscal matters, she proposes a tax cut, within a broader debate in which the right wing is considering imposing a single rate for all income levels–of 15 percent, according to the leader of the League, Matteo Salvini–.

Salvini is the second major protagonist of the right-wing alliance and aspires to enter the Government again, as he did in a previous stage with the M5S in which he served as Minister of the Interior and flaunted his doctrine of ‘closed ports’ for migrants trying to reach the Italian coasts.

The third in discord in this right-wing alliance is Berlusconi, who at the head of Forza Italia remains against all odds in the political front line, apparently immune to scandals ranging in recent years from economic crimes to potential abuses in his controversial parties.

Berlusconi, who has traditionally represented the moderate right in Italy, has ended up phagocytized by two radical formations and, during the campaign, has been forced to assume that Meloni will have the right to head the next government if, as it seems, his party is the most voted in the elections.

The conservative bloc, which aspires to an absolute majority and even a supermajority, would not have been affected in the campaign by the shadow of the war in Ukraine, which has forced the three parties to try to leave behind their usual empathy or even personal closeness with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and his orbit.

However, they did publicly question the sanctions imposed by the EU against Moscow, appealing to the pernicious collateral effects, and the opposition has pulled out the newspaper archive to recall Berlusconi and Putin’s visits to the Crimean peninsula or the League’s ties with the officialist United Russia, among other stories.

Neither the warnings about Russian influence nor the warnings regarding a potential radical turn in domestic politics have served to shape a real left-wing alternative in Italy, despite the efforts of former Prime Minister Enrico Letta to unite forces around the Democratic Party (PD).

The left-wing front has finally been blurred with Green Europe, Italian Left and Civic Commitment –the latter a party created by Luigi di Maio–, and although it aspires to exceed 20 percent of the vote, it might not be enough for Letta to have government options.

Behind are the M5S, led by former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and which already made it clear from the start that it would go it alone, and an ‘ad hoc’ alliance between Matteo Renzi’s Italia Viva and Carlo Calenda’s Action, which at most aspire to have something to say in hypothetical post-electoral negotiations.

Whatever happens, Draghi has already made it clear that he does not want to remain in power. The name of this economist, former head of the European Central Bank (ECB), was the only way of consensus that the Italian president, Sergio Mattarella, found at the beginning of 2021 to prevent Italy from plunging into the political abyss.

Draghi considers the task accomplished, especially after the wear and tear of leading a survival cabinet with an amalgam of parties, as he made clear in his last press conference. In this appearance, he bet on Europeanism and defended Italy’s strength against any possible “puppet” of external interests.

The electoral ‘ranking’ that emerges after the closing of the polls this Sunday, however, does not necessarily mean an automatic pact to form a government. Once all the seats have been distributed — under a system that combines lists and single-member candidacies — it will be up to Mattarella to open a round of contacts in mid-October.

Berlusconi boasts of being the last leader to become prime minister after topping a party list in an election, something that has now been more than fourteen years in the making. The usual struggle between arithmetic and egos has led to the search for alternative candidates within the most voted party or independent personalities capable of generating a minimum consensus between formations that would otherwise never understand each other.

In fact, the withdrawal of the necessary support for Draghi’s government has forced the elections to be brought forward to September 25. The Constitution establishes that the renewal of the chambers must take place every five years and the last elections were held in 2018.

Some 50 million Italians are called to choose who will occupy 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 200 in the Senate. In both chambers there will now be fewer legislators, as established in a constitutional reform endorsed in a referendum by the citizenry in September 2020.

The polls will remain open from 7.00 a.m. until 11.00 p.m., although the final results will not be known until Monday. The polls anticipate a lower turnout than in previous processes, so surprises are not ruled out, which may also come depending on the side towards which the last minute undecided are inclined.