Crypto analyst Rekt Capital predicts bitcoin (BTC) price could fall below $15,000

The price of bitcoin has tumbled nearly 8% in the past 24 hours as the dollar index continues to rise above 110, making the crypto and stock markets weak ahead of the Fed’s FOMC meeting on September 20-21. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital predicts that the price of BTC could fall below $13,900, and to $11,500 in an extreme scenario.

Historical data indicates that the price of bitcoin can still fall

In the monthly period, the bitcoin price is currently struggling to rise above the $20,000 level, which shows weakness. The $20,000 – $23,350 range will mainly decide the bears and bulls here. The price movements in July and August indicate the difference in pressure on the buy side, with $20,000 as support.

However, the price movement in September was so weak and suggests that $20,000 is now turning into a resistance level. If the month ends with the Bitcoin price below the $20,000 level, the next support levels are $17,165 and $13,900.

Historically, the bitcoin price forms a floor at or below the 200-week moving average (WMA) after a death cross. Post-Death Cross retracements have ranged from -42% to -73%.

Therefore, given the historical retracements post-Death Cross and support levels, the bitcoin price is expected to bottom out at around $13,900. In the extreme scenario, the price of BTC is expected to bottom out at $11,500.

Since the price of BTC is already below the 200-WMA and the psychological level of $20,000, the decline seems most likely. However, there is a massive difference in market capitalization size, liquidity, and institutional and retail adoption of Bitcoin now compared to previous periods.

Bitcoin bottomed 547 days before bitcoin halved in 2015 and 517 days before bitcoin halved in 2018. Therefore, if bitcoin is to bottom 517-547 days before the next halving in April 2024, then the low will occur in the fourth quarter of this year.

Macro elements impact the price of BTC

Despite an increasing number of new addresses daily, the price of bitcoin continues to plunge below $20,000.

The price of bitcoin (BTC) will depend primarily on the Fed’s rate hike on September 21. Wall Street experts, such as Goldman Sachs, are predicting a 75 basis point rate hike in September and 50 basis points in November and December. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a 75 basis point rate hike is 80%.

Currently, the price of BTC is trading above the $19,000 level after recovering nearly 4% since the 24-hour low of $18,390. If the U.S. dollar index stays near 110, the BTC price will be under pressure.