Catalonia is at the beginning of a covid-19 new growth. Experts do not envision this surge to be like previous pandemic waves, but all assume that there is a spike in cases that will continue to rise in the coming weeks. The primary care centers (PCCs) are already noticing this increase, as the diagnostics coronavirus diagnoses already exceed 4,500 per week and the positivity (the percentage of positive tests) is already above 10% this week, according to figures from the Conselleria de Salut. Even so, what is predominant at the moment in the CAPs is the rhinovirus, i.e., colds, catarrh or trancazos.
The secretary of Public Health of Catalonia, Carmen Cabezas, acknowledged today that she is “likely” that a new wave will arrive but without repercussions on health care. In an interview in RAC-1, the doctor acknowledged a tendency to increase but assured that the situation is “very maintained”. and at very low levels. In addition, according to Cabezas, the Catalan surveillance network has detected a new variant of omicron in wastewater, but without any clinical case. It is a variation on the BA.5 called BQ1, which would be more transmissible but not more serious.
The hospitals, at the moment, they are not living any impact from this increase: the number of people in the ucis continues at minimums (13 in the whole territory, last Tuesday, the last day for which Salut offers figures) and there are. less than 500 patients with covid in conventional plant. “We are in the beginning of a growth spurt. We hope that the severe cases will not grow in the same way and that we will notice the improvement thanks to the vaccine and to the natural immunity of the virus,” he points out Daniel Lopez-Codina, researcher of the Computational Biology and Complex Systems Group. (Biocomsc).
According to Lopez-Codina, this growth was. “to be expected.” because, after six months, the antibodies from the vaccines start to be lost. Still, despite the increase in diagnoses, he says, “there is no pressure on CAPs.”
The cases of Germany and France
The epidemiologist Joan Caylà asks to take a look at Germany and France, where contagions are rising sharply. At Germany, coronavirus-occupied beds increased 50% in one week, according to ‘El País’. “Seeing what is happening in Germany and France, it makes sense to think that the same thing will happen to us,” Caylà points out. According to him, what may be happening is that “over there it will do colder than here.” or, even, that “they have a variant That’s affecting those countries.” “Whatever it is, it makes sense that this will happen here in a week or two,” he says.
At France for example, the incidence has increased by 17% in the last seven days, and hospital admissions, a 19%. Specifically in the region of Occitania, very close to Catalonia, the number of contagions has increased by 22% and income by 20,7%.
This epidemiologist calls for an insistence on the fourth dose of the vaccine and to be vaccinated against influenza as well. He finds it significant that the diagnoses of the CAPs have passed from 3,000 to 4,500 per week, among other things because “few tests are done”. “Spain is the country in Europe where fewer tests are performed by 100,000 inhabitants.” he stresses. Spain prioritizes diagnostic tests in people over 60 years of age, but in young people “it is very difficult for them to be done.”
All in all, the figures are rising. The Community of Madrid, for example, has experienced a increase of cases by 34% in the last seven days and the number of hospital admissions has multiplied by 1.5. Caylà calls not to stop to use the mask in public transport and for infected persons to confine themselves and telework from home.