Bitcoin back in China? A mirage for the industry

The policy of Hong Kong towards the crypto gave some people hope for a inflection of the chinese line anti-Bitcoin. The appointment of Pan Gongsheng to the Central bank from China appears sweep all hopesalready thin.

In 2021, the China decided to ban all activities connected with the cryptocurrencies. As a result, the mining industry relocated, mostly back to the United States. For the chinese central bankthe priority for digital currency goes to the CBDC.

A few years later, could the political powers that be initiate a turn ? Several personalities within the crypto ecosystem are keeping this hypothesis alive, such as Justin Sun, Cameron Winklevoss, or Changpeng Zhao in a tweet in May.

Hong Kong, mirror of Chinese politics?

On what do they base this scenario? Essentially, on the crypto-friendly policy implemented by Hong Kong. The former British colony, handed back to China in 1997, has been severely taken over by Beijing.

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Conclusion: any move by Hong Kong towards crypto would have the support of the Chinese state. For Jeremy Allaire, Circle’s CEO, this would presage a political reversal towards Bitcoin and other tokens.

The Communist Party’s appointment of Pan Gongsheng to Central Bank however, sends a negative signal. Presented as the future governor of PBOCPan is a fierce opponent of crypto.

If you sit by the river one day and look at the corpse of the Bitcoin will float before you,” he declared at an event in 2017.

A likely anti-BTC PBOC governor

Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, announced the same year the death of the BTC. Today, he is an ardent supporter.

For an economist, a former PBOC official for eight years and a connoisseur of its workings, the support for Bitcoin is pure fiction..

It doesn’t matter what happens in Hong Kong, because mainland China generally regards Hong Kong as an overseas market,” adds David Qu.

Clearly, Hong Kong’s policy is not a step towards the rehabilitation of crypto in China. China. Bloomberg suggests that this narrative of a reopening of China is carried by representatives currently targeted by US regulators.

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The scenario would thus be above all a message to American politiciansjust like the argument of offshoring and job destruction.

It is true, however, that the U.S. position contrasts with the evolution of legal frameworks in jurisdictions such as Hong Kong, Dubai and certain European markets.

A Chinese story aimed primarily at the United States

The crypto industry nonetheless needs strong economies, like China’s Chinato compensate for worsening market conditions in the US.

With the shift in position taking place in many countries, it’s unlikely that China will remain unmoved – it will gradually accept crypto-currencies,” argues Vanessa Cao, founder of BTX Capital.

It’s unlikely, however, that Bank of China develops a positive short-term stance towards cryptocurrencies. Moreover, central bankers are largely unfavorable to these assets, even in states where they are more favorably regulated.

“It’s only natural that the Chinese authorities anti-Bitcoin stance “, judges Adrian Lai, founder of Newman Capital, manager of a crypto fund in Hong Kong.

Mainland China is not going to relax the ban on crypto-currencies at the moment or in the near future,” he tells Bloomberg.

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