Snapshots of Multiple Personalities

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* Submitted by Royals Blue statistician Charles Winters

We have a tale of multiple personalities in Royals baseball in 2014.  Taking snapshots of the season at various points (selected for their swinginess, because I found it interesting that way) the Royals have gone in sequence:

14-12

12-18

13-2

9-18

17-4

 

Just looking at the schedule there appears to be no real rhyme or reason for it.  I could really dig deep I suppose and think that maybe the NL triggers some hot streaks or that the Twins or Indians trigger cold snaps, but I just don’t have enough data and I’m not going to do it.  I’m more interested to find out if other teams have streaks this dramatic that don’t appear to make sense (outside of seemingly random performance swings – the Royals have been VERY lucky on the injury front this season).

 

So, take Detroit:

12-9

15-3

7-17

19-8

9-17

That looks just as swingy, doesn’t it?  So the Royals youth doesn’t seem to swing any more than Detroit’s grizzled veterans!  But wait, these are .530 type teams – pretty close to the median.  What if we chose really bad or really good teams?  Say this year’s Atheltics!

13-5

6-10

18-7

10-8

14-7

12-10

That seems more consistent.  I had to work a bit to find a sub .500 set of more than 15 games.

 

Has anyone noticed?  I’m cherry picking!  It’s a method that gets folks all the time.  I could re-sample these teams to make them all more consistent (maybe lock in a set of 27 as the size for each streak…(there are six samples of 27 games in a 162 game season just as there six months in a baseball season))….

Oak: 17-10, 15-12, 19-8, 15-12, 7-5 (so far)….

Det: 18-9, 13-14, 16-11, 14-13, 3-7 (so far)… still pretty inconsistent – even so injuries explain their inconsistency – but not as dramatic as my presentation above…

KC: 14-13, 12-15, 16-11, 14-13, 9-2… talk about smoothing.

There are a lot of things that can be done with data.  I think the Royals feel more inconsistent than the second chart, but as you can see they are not anything like what the first chart would have you believe… beware the cherry pickers, they will make you believe whatever fantasy they wish to construct.

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